the Skin Flutes

Tony Rojas · 2014–2025 (12 seasons)

Career Record

83-90

.480 win%

Points For

21,770.96

1,814.25 per season

Championships

0

4 top-3 finishes

Best / Worst

10-4

Best: 2016 Β· Worst: 2023

πŸ€–

The Steady Hand With an Unfortunate Name

The Steady Hand With an Unfortunate Name

Tony Rojas has kept the same team name β€” "the Skin Flutes" β€” for all eleven seasons. No rebrand. No seasonal puns. No name changes after a bad year. Just unwavering commitment to a name that makes you do a double-take every time you see it in the standings.

The .475 Life

Tony's career win rate is .475 β€” which places him squarely in the "not quite good enough" tier. He's never won a championship despite three top-3 finishes. His career is defined by heartbreaking near-misses: he's been to the doorstep (3rd place in 2019, 2022, and 2024) but never kicked it down.

His 2024 season was particularly agonizing: 9-6, #3 seed, 2nd-place finish. One win away from the title. Again.

The Boom-Bust Pattern

Tony's season-to-season consistency is… nonexistent. He'll go 10-4 (2016) and follow it up with 3-11 (2017). He'll post a 9-6 season (2022) and then crash to 2-13 (2023 β€” the worst record in any single season in recent memory). The year-over-year variance is wild, and there's no predicting which Tony shows up.

His 2023 collapse (2-13, last place, 1,537 points) might be the most shocking single-season performance in league history given that he'd finished 3rd just one year prior.

The Matt Ryan Loyalty Program

Tony drafted Matt Ryan four times β€” the most any manager has drafted a single quarterback. In a league where most managers rotate QBs like tires, Tony stuck with his guy through thick and thin. He also has strong RB-lean tendencies: his position breakdown is the only one in the league where RBs (64) outnumber WRs (61).

The Set-It-and-Forget-It Approach

192 career moves (17.5/year) and just 4 trades. Tony is the second-least active manager behind Nate Kirkpatrick. He doesn't panic, he doesn't churn the roster, and he certainly doesn't trade. His busiest year was 2021 with just 25 moves. The man trusts his draft and lives with the consequences.

The Wilfork Rivalry

Tony's most-played rivalry is with Nate Kirkpatrick (Wilfork on the first date), and it's nearly even: 13 wins to 13 losses. They're the league's most perfectly matched duo β€” two quiet, low-trade managers who just keep running into each other.

The Verdict

Zero championships, three heartbreaking 3rd-place finishes, and a 2-13 season thrown in for chaos. Tony Rojas is the league's most enigmatic manager β€” capable of both brilliance and disaster, often in consecutive years. The Skin Flutes are always in the conversation, just never holding the trophy. Yet.

Generated by claude-opus-4-6 Β· April 11, 2026

Season History

Year Team Name Place Seed Record PF PA Moves Trades
2014 the Skin Flutes 5 6 7-7 1,662.76 1,574.22 20 0
2015 the Skin Flutes 6 7 6-8 1,568.20 1,784.66 15 2
2016 the Skin Flutes 4 2 10-4 1,946.98 1,588.28 16 0
2017 the Skin Flutes 10 10 3-11 1,477.98 1,820.70 20 0
2018 the Skin Flutes 8 7 6-8 1,820.40 1,875.82 16 1
2019 the Skin Flutes 3 1 9-5 1,812.08 1,778.30 15 0
2020 the Skin Flutes 4 3 8-6 1,894.84 1,817.04 22 0
2021 the Skin Flutes 8 7 6-9 1,831.30 1,834.12 25 0
2022 the Skin Flutes 3 4 9-6 2,146.90 1,909.70 9 0
2023 the Skin Flutes 10 10 2-13 1,537.90 1,932.96 13 1
2024 the Skin Flutes 2 3 9-6 2,021.48 1,923.22 21 0
2025 The big saltena 2 3 8-7 2,050.14 1,886.68 β€” β€”

Draft Tendencies

Total Draft Picks

203

Avg pick: 85.2

Earliest Pick

1.02

Saquon Barkley (2020)

Favorite Position

RB

34% of all picks

Position Breakdown

RB
70 (34%)
WR
67 (33%)
QB
23 (11%)
TE
22 (11%)
DEF
11 (5%)
K
10 (5%)

Most Drafted Players

Players drafted more than once across seasons.

Matt Ryan

QB

4Γ—

Joe Burrow

QB

4Γ—

Devonta Freeman

RB

3Γ—

Emmanuel Sanders

WR

3Γ—

Lamar Jackson

QB

3Γ—

Darren Waller

TE

3Γ—

Marshawn Lynch

RB

2Γ—

Joique Bell

RB

2Γ—

Martellus Bennett

TE

2Γ—

Denver Broncos

DEF

2Γ—

Draft History

2014

Pick Player Pos Team ADP Value True Value Finish
1.09 Drew Brees QB NO β€” β€” β€” 303.0 QB6
2.12 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA β€” β€” β€” 265.3 RB3
3.29 Andre Ellington RB ARI β€” β€” β€” 131.5 RB20
4.32 Cordarrelle Patterson WR MIN β€” β€” β€” β€”
5.49 Randall Cobb WR GB β€” β€” β€” 202.4 WR6
6.52 Joique Bell RB DET β€” β€” β€” 164.2 RB14
7.69 Trent Richardson RB IND β€” β€” β€” β€”
8.72 Matt Ryan QB ATL β€” β€” β€” 284.3 QB7
9.89 Reggie Wayne WR IND β€” β€” β€” β€”
10.92 Martellus Bennett TE CHI β€” β€” β€” 131.6 TE5
11.109 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU β€” β€” β€” 155.0 WR15
12.112 Darren Sproles RB PHI β€” β€” β€” β€”
13.129 Tavon Austin WR STL β€” β€” β€” β€”
14.132 Steve Smith WR BAL β€” β€” β€” 140.5 WR20
15.149 Denver Broncos DEF β€” β€” β€” 117.0 DEF19
16.152 Devonta Freeman RB ATL β€” β€” β€” β€”
17.169 Nick Novak K LAC β€” β€” β€” 110.0 K22

2015

Pick Player Pos Team ADP Value True Value Finish
1.05 Eddie Lacy RB GB 4.0 RB4 +1.0 β€” β€”
2.16 T.Y. Hilton WR IND 23.5 WR9 -7.5 -49.1 176.9 WR21
3.25 Justin Forsett RB DEN 22.3 RB11 +2.7 β€” β€”
4.36 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN 32.5 WR14 +3.5 -25.2 186.4 WR20
5.45 Carlos Hyde RB SF 41.8 RB18 +3.2 β€” β€”
6.56 Golden Tate WR DET 45.5 WR17 +10.5 -24.4 164.4 WR28
7.65 Martellus Bennett TE CHI 65.3 TE6 -0.3 β€” β€”
8.76 Matt Ryan QB ATL 72.5 QB7 +3.5 -67.3 233.9 QB19
9.85 Pierre Garcon WR WAS 115.5 WR44 -30.5 β€” 149.7 WR33
10.96 Joique Bell RB DET 73.3 RB30 +22.7 β€” β€”
11.105 Tre Mason RB STL 98.5 RB38 +6.5 β€” β€”
12.116 Markus Wheaton WR PIT 129.5 WR49 -13.5 β€” β€”
13.125 Allen Hurns WR JAX 214.5 WR67 -89.5 β€” 193.1 WR16
14.136 Arizona Cardinals DEF 161.0 DEF7 -25.0 +39.0 186.0 DEF1
15.145 Cam Newton QB CAR 109.0 QB14 +36.0 +117.8 389.1 QB1
16.156 Robert Woods WR HOU 270.0 WR90 -114.0 β€” β€”
17.165 Kai Forbath K NO 413.0 K39 -248.0 +68.0 68.0 K32

2016

Pick Player Pos Team ADP Value True Value Finish
1.06 Rob Gronkowski TE NE 11.5 TE1 -5.5 β€” β€”
2.15 Jordan Reed TE WAS 33.5 TE2 -18.5 β€” β€”
3.26 Latavius Murray RB LV 41.0 RB15 -15.0 +13.1 191.7 RB13
4.35 Jarvis Landry WR MIA 30.0 WR18 +5.0 +5.3 184.3 WR14
5.46 Eric Decker WR NYJ 49.0 WR25 -3.0 β€” β€”
6.55 Melvin Gordon RB LAC 64.5 RB23 -9.5 +76.1 230.1 RB7
7.66 Tyler Lockett WR TEN 72.8 WR33 -6.8 β€” β€”
8.75 Carson Palmer QB ARI 80.3 QB8 -5.3 -27.8 243.1 QB19
9.86 T.J. Yeldon RB JAX 93.3 RB35 -7.3 β€” β€”
10.95 Kevin White WR CHI 94.8 WR39 +0.2 β€” β€”
11.106 Christine Michael RB GB 148.8 RB51 -42.8 β€” β€”
12.115 Kirk Cousins QB WAS 120.5 QB13 -5.5 +40.4 300.3 QB5
13.126 Mike Wallace WR BAL 168.8 WR60 -42.8 β€” 166.8 WR23
14.135 Kyle Rudolph TE MIN 206.3 TE27 -71.3 β€” 167.5 TE2
15.146 Matt Ryan QB ATL 155.3 QB19 -9.3 +104.4 347.5 QB2
16.155 Justin Tucker K BAL 157.0 K3 -2.0 +17.0 161.0 K2
17.166 Chris Johnson RB NYJ 176.0 RB56 -10.0 β€” β€”

2017

Pick Player Pos Team ADP Value True Value Finish
1.10 Melvin Gordon RB LAC 9.6 RB5 +0.4 0.0 259.1 RB5
2.11 Devonta Freeman RB ATL 9.4 RB4 +1.6 -86.5 182.2 RB13
3.30 Keenan Allen WR LAC 32.6 WR15 -2.6 +54.7 233.2 WR3
4.31 Matt Ryan QB ATL 56.0 QB4 -25.0 -67.1 228.1 QB15
5.50 LeGarrette Blount RB NE 102.6 RB38 -52.6 β€” β€”
6.51 Jamison Crowder WR NYJ 63.8 WR31 -12.8 β€” β€”
7.70 Jimmy Graham TE SEA 58.0 TE5 +12.0 +0.9 142.5 TE4
8.71 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN 60.0 WR29 +11.0 β€” β€”
9.90 Eric Decker WR NYJ 90.4 WR37 -0.4 β€” β€”
10.91 Matthew Stafford QB DET 113.6 QB14 -22.6 +34.7 273.6 QB7
11.110 Julius Thomas TE DEN 163.8 TE20 -53.8 β€” β€”
12.111 Jameis Winston QB TB 81.4 QB6 +29.6 -75.9 201.7 QB22
13.130 Mohamed Sanu WR ATL 180.5 WR60 -50.5 β€” 140.8 WR30
14.131 Kendall Wright WR TEN 186.0 WR62 -55.0 β€” β€”
15.150 Arizona Cardinals DEF 139.3 DEF7 +10.7 -36.0 112.0 DEF15
16.151 Steven Hauschka K SEA β€” β€” β€” β€”
17.170 Jack Doyle TE IND 127.4 TE14 +42.6 β€” β€”

2018

Pick Player Pos Team ADP Value True Value Finish
1.10 Odell Beckham Jr. WR NYG 12.0 WR3 -2.0 -82.3 191.8 WR16
2.11 Julio Jones WR ATL 14.0 WR4 -3.0 -2.3 269.4 WR5
3.30 Travis Kelce TE KC 31.0 TE2 -1.0 +20.8 243.1 TE1
4.31 Derrick Henry RB TEN 32.5 RB17 -1.5 +14.2 193.9 RB14
5.50 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA 58.0 RB23 -8.0 β€” β€”
6.51 Chris Thompson RB WAS 171.5 RB54 -120.5 β€” β€”
7.70 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN 73.5 WR31 -3.5 +13.3 162.7 WR23
8.71 Kirk Cousins QB MIN 85.0 QB8 -14.0 -21.9 282.6 QB12
9.90 Kyle Rudolph TE MIN 78.0 TE8 +12.0 β€” β€”
10.91 Carlos Hyde RB SF 58.5 RB24 +32.5 β€” β€”
11.110 Paul Richardson WR WAS 163.0 WR74 -53.0 β€” β€”
12.111 Mohamed Sanu WR ATL 160.5 WR59 -49.5 β€” 149.4 WR31
13.130 Quincy Enunwa WR NYJ 224.5 WR81 -94.5 β€” β€”
14.131 Bilal Powell RB NYJ 141.0 RB49 -10.0 β€” β€”
15.150 Jimmy Garoppolo QB SF 100.5 QB10 +49.5 β€” β€”
16.151 Philadelphia Eagles DEF 123.0 DEF4 +28.0 -38.0 97.0 DEF24
17.170 Frank Gore RB SF 186.0 RB61 -16.0 β€” β€”

2019

Pick Player Pos Team ADP Value True Value Finish
1.08 David Johnson RB HOU 6.0 RB5 +2.0 β€” β€”
2.13 Odell Beckham Jr. WR CLE 13.7 WR5 -0.7 -52.2 164.3 WR26
3.28 Zach Ertz TE PHI 30.0 TE3 -2.0 -4.4 171.6 TE5
4.33 Devonta Freeman RB ATL 31.0 RB16 +2.0 -21.1 168.1 RB21
5.48 Cooper Kupp WR LAR 52.0 WR21 -4.0 +42.9 223.5 WR4
6.53 Chris Godwin WR TB 43.7 WR18 +9.3 +46.1 233.1 WR2
7.68 Will Fuller WR MIA β€” β€” β€” β€”
8.73 Tarik Cohen RB CHI 73.3 RB31 -0.3 β€” β€”
9.88 LeSean McCoy RB PHI 109.0 RB40 -21.0 β€” β€”
10.93 Philip Rivers QB LAC 127.3 QB16 -34.3 -8.9 235.5 QB18
11.108 Jordan Howard RB 94.3 RB35 +13.7 β€” β€”
12.113 Trey Burton TE CHI 161.0 TE15 -48.0 β€” β€”
13.128 Michael Gallup WR DAL 130.7 WR46 -2.7 β€” 179.7 WR22
14.133 Lamar Jackson QB BAL 107.0 QB12 +26.0 +152.0 415.7 QB1
15.148 Jamison Crowder WR NYJ 146.5 WR59 +1.5 β€” 158.7 WR31
16.153 Justin Tucker K BAL 121.7 K2 +31.3 -7.0 143.0 K3
17.168 Cleveland Browns DEF 154.3 DEF6 +13.7 -57.0 87.0 DEF25

2020

Pick Player Pos Team ADP Value True Value Finish
1.02 Saquon Barkley RB PHI 2.0 RB2 0.0 β€” β€”
2.19 Patrick Mahomes QB KC 18.7 QB1 +0.3 -21.2 374.4 QB4
3.22 Aaron Jones RB GB 19.0 RB13 +3.0 +53.0 235.4 RB5
4.39 Chris Carson RB SEA 30.0 RB15 +9.0 -7.7 169.3 RB17
5.42 DK Metcalf WR SEA 51.3 WR22 -9.3 +52.0 229.8 WR7
6.59 DJ Chark WR CAR 51.7 WR24 +7.3 β€” β€”
7.62 Raheem Mostert RB LV 51.7 RB23 +10.3 β€” β€”
8.79 Marvin Jones WR DET 93.7 WR37 -14.7 +44.7 189.8 WR17
9.82 Hayden Hurst TE ATL 106.7 TE11 -24.7 β€” β€”
10.99 Anthony Miller WR CHI 127.5 WR54 -28.5 β€” β€”
11.102 Kerryon Johnson RB DET 105.7 RB38 -3.7 β€” β€”
12.119 N'Keal Harry WR NE 156.5 WR59 -37.5 β€” β€”
13.122 Chase Edmonds RB TB 147.0 RB48 -25.0 β€” β€”
14.139 LeSean McCoy RB PHI 168.5 RB60 -29.5 β€” β€”
15.142 Joe Burrow QB CIN 137.0 QB16 +5.0 -86.3 173.7 QB25
16.159 Minnesota Vikings DEF 151.7 DEF7 +7.3 -65.0 57.0 DEF27
17.162 Ka'imi Fairbairn K HOU 217.5 K10 -55.5 -4.0 126.0 K13

2021

Pick Player Pos Team ADP Value True Value Finish
1.03 Derrick Henry RB TEN 3.3 RB3 -0.3 -82.6 184.3 RB16
2.18 Josh Jacobs RB LV 33.5 RB17 -15.5 +15.6 199.0 RB14
3.23 Darren Waller TE NYG 24.0 TE2 -1.0 β€” β€”
4.38 Amari Cooper WR DAL 41.8 WR16 -3.8 -25.3 168.5 WR27
5.43 Diontae Johnson WR PIT 54.0 WR22 -11.0 +38.8 220.9 WR9
6.58 Lamar Jackson QB BAL 44.5 QB4 +13.5 -121.7 240.0 QB16
7.63 Myles Gaskin RB MIA 51.0 RB22 +12.0 -23.4 149.1 RB26
8.78 Tyler Boyd WR CIN 92.5 WR37 -14.5 β€” 150.3 WR31
9.83 Corey Davis WR NYJ 102.3 WR41 -19.3 β€” β€”
10.98 Phillip Lindsay RB MIA 161.3 RB50 -63.3 β€” β€”
11.103 Nyheim Hines RB BUF β€” β€” β€” β€”
12.118 A.J. Green WR CIN 179.8 WR62 -61.8 β€” β€”
13.123 Ty'Son Williams RB BAL 183.3 RB59 -60.3 β€” β€”
14.138 Latavius Murray RB BAL 167.0 RB52 -29.0 β€” β€”
15.143 Zach Ertz TE PHI 167.0 TE16 -24.0 β€” β€”
16.158 Giovani Bernard RB CIN 172.5 RB53 -14.5 β€” β€”
17.163 Baltimore Ravens DEF 121.3 DEF5 +41.7 -60.0 83.0 DEF26

2022

Pick Player Pos Team ADP Value True Value Finish
1.10 Davante Adams WR LV 11.5 WR4 -1.5 +22.9 285.5 WR3
2.11 Alvin Kamara RB NO 15.5 RB9 -4.5 -35.9 183.2 RB18
3.30 Josh Jacobs RB LV 49.5 RB22 -19.5 +134.7 301.8 RB3
4.31 A.J. Brown WR PHI 30.0 WR11 +1.0 +55.7 255.6 WR5
5.50 Joe Burrow QB CIN 56.5 QB6 -6.5 +54.7 350.7 QB4
6.51 Darren Waller TE NYG 47.5 TE5 +3.5 β€” β€”
7.70 Jerry Jeudy WR DEN 56.5 WR22 +13.5 +3.1 170.7 WR21
8.71 Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB KC 66.5 RB26 +4.5 β€” β€”
9.90 Christian Kirk WR JAX 104.0 WR40 -14.0 β€” 199.9 WR11
10.91 Rashaad Penny RB PHI 85.0 RB32 +6.0 β€” β€”
11.110 Chase Claypool WR CHI 130.0 WR47 -20.0 β€” β€”
12.111 Mike Gesicki TE NE 130.0 TE13 -19.0 β€” β€”
13.130 James Robinson RB NE 124.0 RB42 +6.0 β€” β€”
14.131 Jarvis Landry WR NO 152.5 WR52 -21.5 β€” β€”
15.150 Jamaal Williams RB DET 179.0 RB57 -29.0 β€” 219.9 RB8
16.151 Mason Crosby K GB β€” β€” β€” 114.0 K23
17.170 New England Patriots DEF 199.5 DEF14 -29.5 +74.0 186.0 DEF1

2023

Pick Player Pos Team ADP Value True Value Finish
1.02 Ja'Marr Chase WR CIN 3.0 WR2 -1.0 -104.2 212.7 WR13
2.19 Jalen Hurts QB PHI 22.0 QB3 -3.0 +14.0 356.8 QB2
3.22 Lamar Jackson QB BAL 34.7 QB4 -12.7 0.0 331.2 QB4
4.39 Dameon Pierce RB HOU 41.0 RB15 -2.0 β€” β€”
5.42 Najee Harris RB PIT 25.7 RB9 +16.3 -36.3 181.0 RB20
6.59 Darren Waller TE NYG 54.7 TE5 +4.3 β€” β€”
7.62 J.K. Dobbins RB LAC 47.3 RB19 +14.7 β€” β€”
8.79 Brandin Cooks WR NO 98.7 WR40 -19.7 β€” β€”
9.82 Jerry Jeudy WR CLE 78.7 WR32 +3.3 β€” β€”
10.99 Zach Charbonnet RB SEA 106.7 RB37 -7.7 β€” β€”
11.102 Kadarius Toney WR KC 119.3 WR46 -17.3 β€” β€”
12.119 Elijah Moore WR CLE 117.3 WR45 +1.7 β€” β€”
13.122 Samaje Perine RB DEN 111.3 RB39 +10.7 β€” β€”
14.139 Tyler Allgeier RB ATL 149.7 RB49 -10.7 β€” β€”
15.142 Leonard Fournette RB 221.3 RB63 -79.3 β€” β€”
16.159 Daniel Carlson K LV 129.0 K2 +30.0 -38.0 112.0 K25
17.162 Baltimore Ravens DEF 151.3 DEF7 +10.7 +28.0 174.0 DEF1

2024

Pick Player Pos Team ADP Value True Value Finish
1.10 A.J. Brown WR PHI 10.0 WR6 0.0 -43.4 183.4 WR18
2.11 Garrett Wilson WR NYJ 12.0 WR7 -1.0 -17.7 201.4 WR11
3.30 Travis Etienne RB JAX 16.7 RB7 +13.3 β€” β€”
4.31 Kenneth Walker III RB SEA 41.0 RB16 -10.0 -57.9 158.2 RB28
5.50 Terry McLaurin WR WAS 67.0 WR30 -17.0 +61.4 226.8 WR6
6.51 James Conner RB ARI 58.3 RB19 -7.3 +36.8 230.3 RB11
7.70 Joe Burrow QB CIN 64.7 QB8 +5.3 +57.7 372.8 QB3
8.71 Brian Robinson RB WAS 93.3 RB31 -22.3 β€” β€”
9.90 Kyle Pitts TE ATL 63.3 TE7 +26.7 β€” β€”
10.91 Gus Edwards RB LAC 114.3 RB38 -23.3 β€” β€”
11.110 Chuba Hubbard RB CAR 136.3 RB42 -26.3 β€” 220.1 RB15
12.111 Jahan Dotson WR PHI 180.3 WR66 -69.3 β€” β€”
13.130 Kyler Murray QB ARI 62.3 QB7 +67.7 -22.4 297.2 QB10
14.131 Dallas Goedert TE PHI 113.7 TE12 +17.3 β€” β€”
15.150 Dalton Schultz TE HOU 127.7 TE13 +22.3 β€” β€”
16.151 Harrison Butker K KC 125.3 K3 +25.7 -77.0 96.0 K28
17.170 Cincinnati Bengals DEF 221.0 DEF20 -51.0 +9.0 102.0 DEF17

2025

Pick Player Pos Team ADP Value True Value Finish
1.03 Saquon Barkley RB PHI 3.3 RB2 -0.3 -115.4 185.8 RB12
2.18 Trey McBride TE ARI 27.7 TE2 -9.7 +74.3 219.6 TE1
3.23 Kyren Williams RB LAR 24.0 RB12 -1.0 +25.4 211.2 RB8
4.38 Joe Burrow QB CIN 38.0 QB5 0.0 -243.3 80.0 QB28
5.43 Breece Hall RB NYJ 38.0 RB16 +5.0 -2.6 164.5 RB17
6.58 David Montgomery RB DET 55.0 RB22 +3.0 +1.4 144.5 RB21
7.63 D'Andre Swift RB CHI 59.0 RB25 +4.0 +46.9 177.4 RB14
8.78 Deebo Samuel WR WAS 86.7 WR38 -8.7 +20.3 133.8 WR23
9.83 Cooper Kupp WR SEA 100.0 WR43 -17.0 -18.0 82.4 WR50
10.98 Jauan Jennings WR SF 104.0 WR44 -6.0 +13.5 113.5 WR38
11.103 Keon Coleman WR BUF 130.7 WR50 -27.7 -6.9 75.5 WR57
12.118 Christian Kirk WR HOU 158.7 WR58 -40.7 -37.2 37.4 WR98
13.123 Jayden Reed WR GB 118.7 WR47 +4.3 -65.1 27.3 WR102
14.138 Najee Harris RB LAC 124.3 RB45 +13.7 -70.6 10.1 RB79
15.143 Denver Broncos DEF DEN 127.7 DEF1 +15.3 -41.0 120.0 DEF7
16.158 Harrison Butker K KC 187.3 K5 -29.3 -22.0 104.0 K16